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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Stony Brook +124 ML over Marist

Island Federal Credit Union Arena – Stony Brook, NY

7:00 PM ET. On paper, this looks like a 6-2 team giving a small price to a 3-7 squad, but this is where market perception collides with reality. Marist’s record is shiny enough to attract action, but a closer look reveals a team that has played an absolute marshmallow schedule. Out of 364 Division I teams, Marist ranks 359th in strength of schedule. That’s bottom-five material. For context, the Red Foxes have managed to go 6-2 while catching every conceivable bounce along the way, evidenced by their 25th-ranked “luck” rating. That combination — padded records and favorable variance — gives us the precise type of “false favorite” we love to fade.

Marist opened as a two-point road chalk, the largest number they’ve been asked to spot away from home all season. That alone raises red flags. Road favorites must have a specific makeup — mental toughness, reliability, and the ability to handle adversity — and Marist hasn’t shown any of those traits. Look no further than their wins: three of them came by five points or fewer against the likes of New Hampshire, Army, and Mount St. Mary’s. New Hampshire, for example, is ranked 360th out of 364 teams in KenPom’s ratings, yet Marist managed just 54 points in a squeaky five-point win at home. Against Army, Marist needed a buzzer-beating three in overtime to escape. Mount St. Mary’s? Marist trailed late before sneaking out with a three-point win. You get the picture.

In their season-opening loss to Harvard, Marist couldn’t capitalize on a program trending downward in the Ivy League. Their only other loss came to Lehigh — another 3-6 team that mirrors Stony Brook’s record. These results expose Marist as a team prone to playing down to competition, and now they’re being asked to win by margin on the road. Most recently, they beat Manhattan (a team ranked higher than Stony Brook in NET) as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The oddsmakers could have adjusted here but didn’t, offering Marist as just a 2-point choice against a 3-7 opponent. That tells us they don’t buy Marist’s resume either.

Meanwhile, Stony Brook is far more live than their record suggests. The Seawolves have a gritty edge playing at Island Federal Credit Union Arena and are catching a disrespected number against an opponent not built for this role. We’re fading the false favorite and taking back a short but meaningful tag on the undervalued Seawolves.

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