Pinnacle -2 -102 BET365 -2 -110 Sportsinteraction -2 -110 888Sport -2 -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Grambling St -2 over Southeastern Louisiana

Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center – Grambling, LA

7:00 PM ET. On paper, this might seem like a typical spot to fade the Tigers as they’ve been a solid 5-1 against the spread this season. However, the Lions have posted an equally impressive 6-2 record, making any recency bias in ATS results irrelevant here. A deeper look at both teams presents a compelling case for backing the home side.

Southeastern Louisiana has a slight edge in wins, but the level of competition faced by both teams tells a different story. Grambling State has navigated one of the toughest schedules in the nation—ranked 6th in KenPom’s strength of schedule—and has been forced to endure a heap of bad luck, sitting 323rd in luck-adjusted metrics. This is a textbook case of a team whose record doesn’t fully reflect their talent. Meanwhile, Southeastern Louisiana has faced a much softer schedule, ranked 209th in strength of schedule. Sure, the Lions grabbed a stunning win at UAB earlier in the season, but let’s not forget that they’ve struggled against higher-quality opponents.

Grambling has been on the road battling some of the toughest teams in the country. They’ve faced Mississippi, Florida (currently 10-0 and ranked 7th), New Mexico, USC, Cal Poly, and Pepperdine—none of these are slouches. The Tigers have covered in several of these tough matchups, including tight losses to Ole Miss and Cal Poly. Grambling lost by just three at Cal Poly and nearly pulled off a major upset at Ole Miss. Recent blowout losses, like the 28-point thrashing at Pepperdine, have depressed their stock, but that presents an opportunity for us. This is a battle-tested team, and they’re going to be motivated to bounce back in a big way against a team they should beat. It’s hard to ignore the fact that they’re at home here, and they’ll have the edge in talent and experience.

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