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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Morgan State +201 over Campbell

Talmadge L. Hill Field House – Baltimore, MD

2:00 PM EST. There’s a lot to unpack here, but let’s start with the market's knee-jerk reaction to recent results. Campbell comes into this game riding high after obliterating The Citadel on its home floor, winning 86-58 as a 1-point favorite. Meanwhile, Morgan State’s last outing was a complete disaster. They didn’t just lose—they were utterly dismantled by Xavier, 119-58, in a game that was over before halftime. On paper, this mismatch in recent performance might make Morgan State look like an easy fade. However, betting based on surface-level results like these is often a trap, and we’re stepping in to take advantage.

The market doesn’t seem to be accounting for this home/road split, nor does it reflect Campbell’s new role as road chalk. The Fighting Camels have played just four road games this season, going 2-2, and were underdogs in both of their wins (at Green Bay and Navy). Now they’re laying points on the road for the first time all year, and we’re supposed to trust them in a favorite’s role? That’s a hard no. Campbell’s identity this season has been that of a scrappy underdog, but asking them to cover as road chalk, particularly against a team like Morgan State, is a completely different task.

Then there’s Morgan State’s shooting efficiency, which ranks 22nd in the nation at 49.8%. The Bears aren’t a team that jacks up wild shots—they’re patient, disciplined, and take advantage of high-percentage opportunities. That efficiency, combined with Campbell’s tendency to let down after big wins, makes the Bears incredibly dangerous here.

Finally, let’s talk about the psychological edge. Campbell just crushed The Citadel and may be feeling a bit too good about themselves. Meanwhile, Morgan State comes into this game embarrassed and eager to prove they’re better than what they showed against Xavier. These situational dynamics almost always favor the home dog, especially one as scrappy as the Bears.

Morgan State has already shown they can compete with teams better than Campbell when they play in Baltimore. With inflated points due to a bad road outing and Campbell stepping into an unfamiliar role as road chalk, the value here lies entirely with the home side. Bears outright.

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