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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pepperdine -4 over Northern Arizona

Firestone Fieldhouse – Malibu, CA

4:00 PM ET. This is one of those games where the record tells you one thing, but the posted number tells you another. Northern Arizona enters at 7-3 compared to Pepperdine’s 4-6, and the Lumberjacks are catching points. Predictably, the market has piled onto NAU, but we’re going the other way. Why? Because Northern Arizona’s 7-3 record is smoke and mirrors.

The Lumberjacks are ranked 19th in KenPom’s “Luck” metric, and their strength of schedule is an abysmal 337th. They’ve feasted on cupcakes, barely eking out wins over teams like Houston Christian (3 points), Incarnate Word (1 point), and a few D2 schools we won’t even bother naming. Meanwhile, Pepperdine’s 4-6 record is far more battle-tested, and their underlying metrics paint a better picture. The Waves are short-sold chalk here because the market is overly impressed with NAU’s hollow resume.

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