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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Utah Tech +135 ML over Weber State

Burns Arena – St. George, UT

9:00 PM ET. You’ve got to wonder if the oddsmakers are trying to bait the market here because this line doesn’t add up. On the surface, Weber State, at 4-6, looks like a slam dunk over Utah Tech, a team sitting at 2-9 and fresh off a couple of humiliating losses. But surface-level analysis often leads to bad wagers, and this one has “trap game” written all over it.

The Trailblazers’ record is ugly, no doubt. A 30-point loss to Utah State and a blowout against Boise State are not flattering results. Their best win this season? Denver—ranked 315th in KenPom. Most bettors will look at Utah Tech’s résumé, shrug, and grab Weber State without a second thought. After all, how hard can it be to cover three measly points against a team that’s seemingly going nowhere?

Here’s the kicker: Utah Tech has been playing one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the nation (50th in strength of schedule) while ranking 303rd in KenPom’s “Luck” metric. Translation? They’ve had a brutal slate of games and haven’t caught a single break. This is a team that’s better than their record suggests, a team that’s been tested against top-tier competition.

Now let’s flip to Weber State. Sure, they’ve kept things close in their losses, but they still haven’t won a single game on the road this season. Not one. Meanwhile, Utah Tech returns to the friendly confines of Burns Arena with a chance to regroup and reset against a beatable opponent.

What about the line? Oddsmakers aren’t in the business of giving away free money, yet they’ve made Weber State only a slight favorite here. Why? Because Utah Tech is live. This number is screaming, “Watch out for the Trailblazers,” and we’re listening.

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