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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Merrimack +5½ over Vermont

Hammel Court – North Andover, MA

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. When we scour our options, we look for numbers that stick out like a sore thumb and this one leaps off the page. We can begin by stating what the Vermont Catamounts are under Coach John Becker. They are a mid-major superpower. The Cats have qualified for the last three Men’s Basketball Tournaments and they have been both head and shoulders above their opposition in the America East Conference. This is a team that has won 28 games in two of the previous three seasons and has been revered by many analysts on a yearly basis as a team that can be a dark horse or Cinderella outfit in March Madness. Such a team in a scenario as this one would be expected to trample the likes of the Warriors and yet they are spotting what appears to be a very soft and beatable number to the hosts.

It is inexplicable that the Warriors of Merrimack, a team that wasn’t playing D1 basketball five years ago who has migrated from the NEC to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference would be priced in this range to the visiting Catamounts. Merrimack, despite their recent successes in the NEC, has never actually been to the Big Dance. This is a team whose best win in school history is likely against an atypical Bucknell and who earns reputable victories by its standards against LIU, Fairleigh Dickinson, Sacred Heart, and St. Francis (PA), to name a few.

Just to put this into perspective, last year, Vermont was liked by many to upset Duke in the First Round of the 2023-24 Men’s Basketball Tournament. One would expect Merrimack to be a double-digit dog here and yet they are priced as a much bigger threat even though they have never played one second of basketball this season. This speaks volumes.

The old sayings are true about things going around in circles and the hunter becoming the hunted, both of which apply here. Vermont will step into North Andover with a huge target on its back as a result of its local and regional pedigree. Three days ago, the Catamounts were in Auburn, Alabama looking to make a statement against the hosting Tigers and War Eagle beat them by nearly 50. Meanwhile, Merrimack has been waiting all year for Vermont to come to town. What appears to be a rebound game for UVM could in fact be a ghastly outing to the unsuspecting Catamounts, who the oddsmakers perceive to be ill-prepared for the abrupt shift in roles. An upset possibility is clearly on the table.

Sherwood

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