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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Louisville -1½ over Tennessee

KFC Yum! Center – Louisville, KY

Streaming: ACC Network

12:00 PM EST. We could end the write-up emphasizing the danger in backing a ranked underdog and how it sets one up for what we call a sucker bet. We assure you this is not some colossal oversight by the linesmakers.

KenPom ranks Tennessee as the 14th best team in America while Louisville sits at 51 in the same rankings. If one were to work out the differential in overall Net Rating minus home court advantage, the Volunteers should at minimum be a 2.5-point favorite here yet the linesmakers installed the Cardinals the chalk. Make no mistake, the oddsmakers knew that would foster such a reaction from the betting public. Oddsmakers are clearly taking a firm position on what they expect to see this afternoon in the venue named after fried chicken and sushi.

A breakdown of X’s and O’s is not required here, as we have the market salivating over the prospect of taking back a sliver of points with the #12 ranked Volunteers against the unranked hosts. From the onset, the market has been all over Tennessee and this ticks all the boxes of what we look for when we survey the daily menu.

Louisville’s defense put on a clinic against Morehead State, a team who last year won 26 games and was both the regular season and conference champion of the Ohio Valley Conference in the 2023-24 season. The Cards held the Eagles to 14 points in the first half and showed dominance on the other side of the court by hanging 50 second-half points just for kicks. The Cardinals forced 20 turnovers, which is pivotal because that is more a reflection of defensive prowess than a lack of opponent quality, since Louisville’s defense is creating and sniping opportunities. The Cardinals also would not allow the three-ball to fly, as the Eagles were held to a 7% three-point field goal percentage (3 for 21 overall). Again, this demonstrates the superior execution that Louisville brings defensively and how it imposes its will. With a revved up fan base in their back pocket, the environs will be always be invigorated as Louisville will find ways to cause chaos for whomever steps onto the hardwood, which is disconcerting for Tennessee who will be leaving Knoxville and trading a tune-up game against a middle of the road Big South constituent like Gardner-Webb for a formidable foe like the U of L. The line suggests that the Vols aren’t prepared.

Sherwood

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