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Amway Center, Orlando, FL - South Region - 2nd Round

Streaming: CBS

San Diego State -5 over Furman

12:10 PM EST. The Aztecs have been pegged by the talking heads to be the next to fall to what could be a Cinderella story with Furman trying to make its first Sweet 16, but we could not disagree more. San Diego State is not college basketball royalty, and because of that, it is under-seeded here as a #5. The Aztecs were ranked in the top 20 (17th) at KenPom, which backs up their deserted 18th place ranking in the AP Top 25. The Aztecs are battle-tested after playing a tough non-conference schedule that ranked 17th in the nation. SDSU played then #9 Arkansas and went to overtime, losing 78-74, while also having the stones to schedule other Power Six schools like Ohio State and Arizona. The Aztecs also played the Gaels of Saint Mary’s tough back in December in a seven-point loss.

Furman picked up an upset win in its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 43 years after knocking off Virginia, 68-67, on Thursday. As the score suggests, the winning basket was a thrilling one that saw the Paladins intercept a long-range pass from the Cavaliers. That pass was intercepted by Garrett Hein, who had just made both of his free throws to bring Furman within two points. Hein then hit JP Pegues, who was wide open for the game-winning 3-pointer. The Cavs would get one more crack, but that attempt would hit the iron as the buzzer sounded.

We're not going to take anything away from the Paladins, as the upsets are what makes this tournament so fun, but as purveyors of value, we are tasked with determining where the over and underreactions to Round 1 are going to be today. The Paladins were a 5-point pooch on Thursday against UVA and sent the Cavs packing. Meanwhile, San Diego State won and narrowly covered against the College of Charleston as a 5½-point favorite. The Aztecs cannot be the same price today as they were against Charleston. This is the definition of deflated points.

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