Iowa State vs Pitt
Iowa State -4½ -106 over Pitt

Posted Thurs, March 16 at 5:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -4½ -106  BET365  -4½ -110 Sportsinteraction -4½ -110 888Sport -4½ -110

Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC - Midwest Region - 1st Round

Streaming: truTV

Iowa State -4½ -106 over Pitt

Friday - 3:10 PM EST. We faded Pitt in its "punishment," er, "play-in" game during the First Four on Tuesday night, and although we ripped up that ticket, we didn't see anything from the Panthers to change our minds that they are not only overseeded, but not deserving of their at-large bid to the Big Dance at all.

If not for the dramatic turnaround from last season to this one, which saw Pitt rack up 13 more wins in the regular season than it did in 2021-22, it would have been a great story. However, the Panthers built that turnaround on the back of a weak non-conference schedule (254th), and in a down year for the ACC, which only sent four teams to the NCAAs despite being a normally powerful conference. The analytics do not like the Panthers and rank them just 71st in the nation. Here's a list of teams that got snubbed and their rankings — Oregon (37th), Rutgers (38th), and Oklahoma State (39th), just to name a few. We could give you more if you like — Michigan (42nd), North Texas (45th), and Liberty (47th). There are many more, but we hope you take our point.

Meanwhile, Iowa State is ranked 22nd and played in the meat grinder that was the B1G. When the dust settled, the Hawkeyes played the fourth most difficult slate of games in the entire nation. Iowa State's modest 19-13 record might suggest that it is overseeded here, but the Hawkeyes are most definitely not. This is a team that should not only be seeded higher but also ranked properly in the Top-25. That serves us well here, as we are not able to spot far fewer points than we should be. Iowa State could not have pulled a better draw if it made its bracket itself. These are deflated points that must be swallowed.


Our Pick

Iowa State -4½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)