Purdue vs Penn State
Purdue -7½ -107 over Penn State

Posted at 12:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -7½ -107  BET365  -7½ -110 Sportsinteraction -7½ -110 888Sport -7½ -110

United Center, Chicago, IL

Streaming: CBS

Purdue -7½ over Penn State

3:30 PM EST. By all accounts, Penn State punched its ticket to the Big Dance with its 77-73 win over ranked Indiana yesterday afternoon, which was the Nittany Lions' second upset win over a ranked B1G brother in this conference tournament, having also beaten Northwestern. While not ranked, the Nittany Lions knocked off 20-win Illinois too. ESPN's Bracketology now has Penn State locked, as does CBS, as it figures to be seeded in the #9-to-#11 range. There might not be a hotter team on the court today than Penn State, having won eight of nine, including five straight. Penn State is 4-1 Against the Spread (ATS) in those games, bringing their season record ATS to a profitable 19-13-2.

Meanwhile, Purdue has not been nearly as profitable this season, going 13-18-2 ATS. That includes a run of futility that has seen the Boilermakers go just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 and 1-4 ATS in their last five. That poor run at the pay window is going to make the 7½ points the Boilermakers are spotting today look very appealing. However, Purdue is on a mission to win the B1G. Purdue has won just one conference title since this format was introduced in 1998. That was back in 2009.

Purdue head coach Matt Painter's fingerprints are all over this B1G final, as he was the boss to Penn State head coach Micah Shrewsberry, who served two different stints as an assistant at Purdue. Perhaps no coach in Division I has seen their stock rise like Shrewsberry's has this week. The same could be said for the #10-seeded Nittany Lions.

It's worth noting that no team seeded lower than #8 has ever won the B1G tournament, but winning and covering are two different beasts. However, with Penn State's stock through the roof, now is not the time to buy in. The prudent play would be to sell PSU and spot this deflated pile of points with a superior side that is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Purdue is not regarded as B1G royalty. It is not THE Ohio State, or Michigan, or Michigan State. What the Boilermakers are is a tough-as-nails team that wants to be a #1 seed when the NCAA Tournament starts. It is not going to give the committee a reason not to pull that trigger on Selection Sunday. Boilermakers roll. Big time. Swallow the points.


Our Pick

Purdue -7½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)