Posted at 1:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -3 -109  BET365  -3 -110 Sportsinteraction -3 -110 888Sport -3 -110

Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL

Streaming: ESPN+

Texas Southern -3 over Alabama A&M

3:00 PM EST. The first thing to note here is that this game is in A&M’s backyard, as it will take place in Birmingham at Bartow Arena, which is about 100 miles from Alabama A&M’s campus, so give the underdog the partisan crowd edge. In terms of conference record, the Bulldogs of Alabama A&M are the #5 seed in this tournament after posting a 10-8 conference record. Texas Southern went 7-11 in the conference and are the #8 seed in this event. Additionally, Alabama A&M’s overall record was 15-17 while Southern’s overall record was 12-20. That’s a trifecta of tangible items all in the Bulldogs favor but it gets even better. A&M has won and covered two in a row and five of its last seven games with Texas Southern has one win in its last five games. In terms of current form and paying out against the number, give a significant edge to Alabama A&M. Now we must ask the question, why the f**k is Southern favored? Why? Why? Why? We don’t have the answer to that question but we are acutely aware of which side the inefficient market is on and which side the books are taking a position on.

While the market’s fascination with wins dominates their bankrolls, we look way beyond that to bring you the correct play or the value play if you will. That would be Texas Southern by a landslide. You see, the Texas Southern Tigers are a battle tested club that was built for and preparing for this moment all season long. A win in November, December, January or February means jack to these one-bid conferences but wins in this conference tournament means everything because that’s the path to punching its ticket to the Main Event.

Texas Southern’s non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked #3 in the entire country while Alabama A&M’s SOS ranked 115th. The Tigers first three games of the year were against San Francisco, Texas tech and Arizona State. Then they played Oral Roberts (who just punched its ticket to The Dance) before playing #1 Houston and then #13 Auburn. The Tigers would also play Kansas and Wichita State in its incredibly difficult non-conference schedule. Incidentally, Southern Texas beat Arizona State in OT, they lost to San Francisco by just 13 and lost to Auburn by 16.

Tigers’ coach Johnny Jones’ ability to procure players is next-level. His teams usually undergo major offseason makeovers, buoyed by bona fide power-conference talent walking through the door on an annual basis. Relative to other SWAC contestants, Jones usually lures the biggest names from the biggest leagues. His Tigers are ready to win this event and subsequently forge deeper into the NCAA Tournament. Another loaded non-conference schedule has them ready. Pay no attention to the Tigers overall record or conference record because the SWAC is littered with landmines, thus the lapses in effort or emotional letdowns were punished in this rapidly improving league. Regardless, Jones is a master maneuverer of the SWAC Tournament, which remains the only reliable path to the postseason for this league. Texas Southern is a steal at this deflated price and we’re on it.

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