Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +112 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +110 888Sport +110

Donald W. Reynolds Center, Tulsa, OK

Steaming: ESPN+

Tulsa +115 over ECU

8:00 PM EST. To an unsuspecting market, the Pirates of ECU are going to look like low-hanging fruit, as they spot a superior 13-13 record to the lowly Golden Hurricane, while also posting a much more appealing 15-11 record Against the Spread (ATS). However, the Pirates got the bulk of those wins during their non-conference slate, which was a weak one, where they feasted on cupcakes (354-of-363 graded Div. I programs). Teams that play weak non-conference schedules are supposed to get exposed during the meat grinder that is conference play. For the most part, that has held true, as ECU is just 4-9 in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Moreover, the Pirates are not a team that has performed well on the road this year, going 1-7.

We acknowledge that Tulsa is the absolute dregs, but backing dregs is often what we do. That’s where the inflated points and value often lie. However, this game is one that stands out like a sore thumb. The Golden Hurricane is just 5-21, and 3-21-2 ATS. If the pointspread is supposed to be the great equalizer, Tulsa did not get the memo. The Golden Hurricane have not cashed a ticket in a month. That’s an eight-game span. In five of those games, Tulsa didn’t come close to covering, losing 81-55 at Cincinnati, 80-42 at then #2 (now #1) Houston, 96-52 at UCF, 96-69 v USF, and 76-63 at Temple on Saturday afternoon. It's ugly, but you may have noticed that four of those five blowouts came on the road.

While modest, it’s worth noting that Tulsa has posted four of its five wins at home this season. That said, we don’t know how Tulsa wins this game, but we’re not going to worry about that, as we are not in the business of predicting who is and who isn’t going to win a game. We can smell a rat running around the Reynold’s Center in Tulsa. We’re going to catch it. Golden Hurricane outright is the call.

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