Posted at 3:00 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +116 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +123 888Sport +125

Allen County War Memorial Coliseum, Fort Wayne, IN

Streaming: ESPN+

Purdue Fort Wayne +127 over Northern Kentucky

7:00 PM EST. Expectations are usually high in Highland Heights, and this year is no different, as the Norse of Northern Kentucky look to finish what they started last year and punch their ticket to The Big Dance for the first time in four years. That might not seem like a long drought, but for a team that was 12 minutes away from a 95% chance to win in the Horizon League championship game last season, missing the madness again would rub salt further into that wound. We don’t usually dwell on games passed, but blowing that 16-point lead to Wright State last March and losing 72-71 has been the overarching narrative of the Norse’s season. They are always out for “revenge” or “vengeance,” whichever word fits better on any given night.

Here in 2022-23, NKU has struggled to adjust to life without Adrian Nelson, who was just a beast on the boards for the Norse. He was a lot of what made that Northern Kentucky engine rev as well, which is what made his transfer to conference rival Youngstown State hurt even more. In case you were wondering how that transfer was going, the Penguins are tops in the Horizon as of this writing. We’ll wrap up with NKU for now, as they are not really the true target of this play. However, the Norse are still mid-major royalty, with a driving narrative behind them both in the market and in the media.

Expectations were high in Fort Wayne as well, as many had the Mastodons pegged for a top three finish and in contention for that elusive Horizon League bid to the NCAA Tournament. Conference play has not been kind to IPFW, as it is just 7-9 and a full 3½ games behind Youngstown State with six teams to jump over to get there. That's a tough swim.

A three-game run of losses with no tickets cashed has also done no favors to the Mastodons' curb appeal. There is no sugarcoating a 33-point loss at Detroit Mercy, but there is no shame in an 81-72 downing by the first-place Penguins. Last time out, Fort Wayne was dropped 71-64 at home to Robert Morris, but it did lead by 13 at the half. It’s worth noting that the Mastodons held the Colonials to just 24 first-half points, but Robert Morris was lights out in the second half, putting up 57. It looks bad, but these things happen. The Mastodons were a 4-point favorite in that game, but now they are an underdog at home. That’s a significant swing. Take the points if you like, but we’re taking IPFW outright. 

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