Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +8½ -110 BET365 +9 -110 SportsInteraction +9 -110 888Sport +9 -110

FAU Arena, Boca Raton, FL

Streaming: CBS Sports Network (CBSSN)

Mid-Tenn St +9 over FAU

7:00 PM EST. We often refer to the point-spread as the great equalizer because that’s precisely what it is designed to be. It is supposed to make the game dead even when you factor in the handicap, thus turning it into a coin-flip.

Flip a coin 10 times and you’ll probably come up with a combination of heads and tails. Probably, but not always. On rare occasions, you might get heads 10 times in a row. The odds against it are 1,024 to 1. Your chances of getting 10 consecutive heads are small, but not vanishingly small. It’s entirely possible. You want to know what’s almost impossible? The odds of winning Powerball are one in 292,201,338. Your chances of getting heads 28 times in a row are better. But people still play Powerball. They’re not dissuaded by the odds.

We mention this because FAU is 14-3-1 Against the Spread (ATS). Are we supposed to believe that the Owls have been so undervalued by the oddsmakers that they just keep covering because of it? That’s actually an absurd thing to believe over an extended period of time. We can understand a team being under or overvalued for a stretch of four or five games at the start of the season when teams that were projected to be weak are strong and vice versa or underachievers/overachievers emerge but we’re 20 games into the season thus, FAU is not the nation’s best kept secret anymore. Point is, the great equalizer is going to hit the Owls hard because they have been more lucky than dominant when it comes to covering the number.

For instance, the Owls beat UTEP by eight as a 5½-point choice, UTSA by 19 as a 17-point favorite, North Texas by four as three-point choice, Northern Kentucky by 15 as 14-point favorite and Detroit by 11 as a 10½-point favorite. These are all one possession or one shot covers that could have easily gone the other way. Had that happened, we would not be having this discussion because they would be a “normal” 9-8-1 ATS and not 14-3-1. Thus, when a team covers as much as FAU has, oddsmakers are forced to overcompensate, which is precisely the situation here.

Bottom line is that Mid-Tennessee State is not only capable of coming in under this number, they are very capable of winning outright because the Owls, despite being a very decent team, aren’t this good. An unjustifiable amount of mid-range and 3-point shots have been falling for the Owls, covering up for their very average shooters. Regression both ATS and outright are forthcoming for FAU and we’ll put that to the test here by scooping up a bunch of inflated points.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LIVE Betting Broadcasts Schedule:

Wednesday, February 1st at 6:15 PM EST.....All Welcome

Join us for a free sportsbetting webinar, specifically, LIVE BETTING, and how to take advantage of the house inefficiencies. We'll show you how to WIN at LIVE betting. We don't just tell you, we show you with screen sharing while making real bets with REAL money. 

We'll go over proven strategies for LONG TERM SUCCESS. How to consistently win and how to avoid the cardinal sins that most sports bettors/investors make. 

Join myself and @matthewfinnie on Wednesday, January 25th on our Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/sherwoodsports anytime after 6:15 PM EST.

We'll share the best LIVE BETTING strategies while showing you how to consistently beat the number. 

We've had 26 winning nights in 32 broadcasts.

We’ll show you how to avoid mistakes or how to avoid stepping in at the wrong time.

All welcome

Wednesday January 25th Join us starting at 6:15 PM EST.

https://www.twitch.tv/sherwoodsports