Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +4½ -110 BET365 +4½ -110 SportsInteraction +4½ -110 888Sport +4½ -110

LeRoy A. Ufkes Court at Western Hall, Macomb, IL

South Dakota +4½ -110 over Western Illinois

7:00 PM EST. College basketball has always been one of our strongest handicapping sports. This year, things are going a bit sour but we’re not going to alter our strategies that have been working so well for 20+ years. We’re confident that things will turn our way and this game is another great example of putting our strategies to the test.

Western Illinois (the Leathernecks) are 12-8 overall with a 5-4 conference mark. South Dakota St (the Coyotes) are 9-11 overall and 4-4 in the conference, thus, based on overall records and conference records, on the surface it appears reasonable that the Leathernecks are a -4½-point choice here. However, we’re here to strongly suggest that WIU is the inferior squad while South Dakota is a potential representative of the Summit to earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance in March.

The Leathernecks non-conference Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranked 275th out of 363 Division I programs. They have collectively played the 359th Adjusted Defense ranked SOS, meaning they have literally played about the worst collection of defense in the country. Thus, WIU’s overall record and conference record are both skewed and misleading. This season brings stiff challenges with WIU’s significant roster turnover but it hasn’t been reflected yet in their record because they have played such weak teams, which includes two Division II programs and one Division III program. The Leathernecks have weak victories and a few blowout losses too.

South Dakota’s non-conference SOS ranked 105th in the country. The Coyotes played Wisconsin, Mississippi St, Air Force and they actually beat BYU. South Dakota hit a bit of a wall for a two week span in early December until Dec 20th, a span in which they lost four straight but it was at that time that one of their highly touted sophomores, Mihai Carcoan, was indicted on 2 counts of rape. It was a blow to the program because HC Eric Peterson invested a lot of time into the 6-11 big man, even traveling to watch him compete in Romania while an assistant at Utah State. Despite all that, the Coyotes are still in the thick of it. It’s not often a 20-win team like South Dakota improves by bringing in a new head coach, but make no mistake that the ‘Yotes are loaded in the backcourt, their tough and battle tested and could very well be in contention to steal a bid from their fellow Dakota neighbors to the north. With a 5-13 Against the Spread record, the Coyotes have greatly underachieved so now would be the time to buy low before that window closes.

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