Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV
Colorado St +167 over Nevada
10:30 PM EST. There are times when we look at a (betting) line and it sticks out so much that we have to dig as deep as we can to see if we missed something. That’s the case here with Nevada being just a -4½-point choice over Colorado State. There is so much to digest here so let’s get started with both teams respective records. Nevada is 2-0 in the conference and 12-3 overall. The Wolfpack are also a big fat 7-0 at home. Colorado State is a pedestrian 8-7 overall, not to mention 0-2 in the Mountain West. Huge edge to Nevada and we cannot credit a weak schedule to Nevada’s superior record, as Nevada’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranks 80th while CSU’s SOS ranks 129th.
Next, we’ll look at recent results, where Colorado State just went into San Jose State as a 9-point favorite and lost outright, 78-70. The game prior at the Pit in New Mexico, Colorado State was destroyed 88-69 but they were down 25 at the half and didn’t come close to competing or making a game out of it. The Rams have dropped three in a row (ugly losses) and have failed to cover in five of six. Meanwhile, Nevada has cashed or covered in two of its last three with the other game over that span being a push.
To recap, we have a 12-3 (2-0 in the conference) team that is undefeated at home and playing at home here, and that has played a tougher schedule than this opponent spotting a small (-4½-point choice) price against an 8-7 team (0-2 in the conference) that just got schooled by New Mexico and then lost outright as a 9-point favorite to San Jose State but there's even more.
Now that college football is over, this is the time of year when the market turns toward the hardcourt, and college hoops become the collegiate world’s focus through March. We mention that because this is the very last game on the board tonight so it’s not going to be overlooked by anyone. We promise you that the oddsmakers were acutely aware of that fact. We now have to wonder why they would post such an easy looking number for Nevada to cover. It’s not like people in Nevada have nowhere to bet. You think we like Colorado State? We don’t but we don’t form opinions, instead we have learned to recognize when something looks “too good to be true” and assure you, this one looks too good to be true. Oddsmakers have clearly taken a position and we’re happy to side with them over the inefficient market. It is very tempting to take the 4½-points but that's up to you. We just post what we play.
Colorado St +167 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.34)