Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

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Sam Houston State +4½ over Nevada

Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

10:00 PM EST. The Bearkats are as steady as they come year in and year out and that is all thanks to the longtime leadership of head coach Jason Hooten. Hooten has led Sam Houston State to at least 18 wins in each of the last nine seasons. Despite that run of success, the Bearkats have yet to taste the NCAA Tournament under Hooten. Sam Houston has had great regular seasons, but have only made it to the Southland championship game twice (2014 & ‘15). Dancing in March is the only thing that Hooten needs to check off his coaching bucket list. If his Bearkats start to this season (6-0) is any indication about the chances of that happening, Hooten better shine his shoes.

Nevada has stormed out of the gate with a 6-1 record after a disastrous 2021-22, but it’s hard to put much stock into their early season surge. According to KenPom, the Wolf Pack has played the 192nd-ranked schedule. Despite the impressive looking record in the standings, Nevada is just the 93rd-ranked school based on KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency Margin, which is a far more valuable metric to gauge just how good the Wolf Pack really are. By contrast, Nevada plays a team that is ranked 10 spots higher than it is at KenPom, yet the Wolf Pack are favored by more than two buckets.

Both of these schools are out to hot starts, but only one has been truly tested. That would be Sam Houston State, who have already played two Power Five schools in Utah and Oklahoma. Oh by the way, the Bearkats won both of those games. Sam Houston is now 6-0 this season, and it’s played the 53rd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Bearkats are producing points in bunches, as they sport the eighth highest scoring offense in Division I hoops, averaging 81.5 points per game. Don’t discount the Bearkats on the backend either, as they are limiting their opponents three point shooting to just 24.8%.

In this day in age, where every game is essentially a three point shooting contest, if you can’t limit the long balls, you have a great chance to win. Based on this price, and market perception, the Bearkats have a great chance to win tonight. However, these inflated points are too good to pass up.