Posted at 10:30 AM EST odds are subject to change.

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Vermont -3½ over Ball St

Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas

12:00 PM EST. Neutral site game has the Catamounts of Vermont spotting less than they should be simply because this is a results based business. In that regard, the Catamounts are 1-5 while Ball State is 3-1, which fits beautifully into our buy-low/sell high mantra.

Indeed, David Letterman’s alma mater is 3-1 but they have played Earlham, Indiana State, Omaha and Indiana South Bend. That’s two D-2 schools and two D-1 schools. The Cardinals lost to Indiana State by 12 and beat the other three. Omaha is ranked 343rd in the country. Ball State is only four games in and while there are things to like about Ball State, we’ll wait for a spot when they’re undervalued to get behind them and to discuss the positives. However, there is a big price to play when scheduling four games to open the year against marshmallows. Furthermore, Ball State has not been tested yet under their new head coach Michael Lewis.

Meanwhile, Vermont has played the 43rd ranked Strength of Schedule (SOS) and also have two more games under their belt than Ball State. The Catamounts have played Brown, St. Mary’s, Cal State Fullerton, USC, Iona and Yale. They lost by 2 points to USC and lost in OT to Cal Fullerton.

Head coach John Becker has won an astonishing 84 percent of his games in the America East over 11 seasons, and his Catamounts have six consecutive league titles. There are few “sure things” in college basketball, but Vermont being near the top of the America East is one of them. The Catamounts are responsible for the last six winners of the conference’s Player of the Year award. However, reigning two-time winner Ryan Davis departed this offseason, as did running mate Ben Shungu. Combine that with Venmont’s 1-5 record and they’re undervalued. For the first time in recent memory, Vermont does not bring back a proven star from the previous roster. However, Becker pulled off one of the biggest coups of the transfer market by landing Bellarmine guard Dylan Penn to fill that void. Penn can be the featured go-to guy, and it is reasonable to anticipate that Vermont’s pillars of success — defensive rebounding, interior scoring and ball security will remain steady. We’ll put Vermont’s misleading record and SOS to the test here and suggest they’ll win going away.