Pinnacle  +195   BET365   +195 Sportsinteraction  +19 5888port  +195

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Denver +195 over Oklahoma City

Ball Arena – Denver, CO

Western Conference Semifinals, Game 3

10:00 PM ET. It’s easy to hesitate on Denver here. The Nuggets entered the postseason with momentum, fresh off a headline-grabbing series win over the Clippers and a stunning buzzer-beater victory in Game 1 of this series. But all of that seemed to dissolve in Game 2, when Oklahoma City delivered a statement — a 43-point dismantling that flipped public perception on its head. The Thunder covered with ease as 11.5-point favorites and looked every bit the No. 1 seed in the process, but that's exactly why we’re buying low.

Blowouts create emotional overreactions — and playoff basketball is filled with these market swings. Historically, teams coming off lopsided losses respond with sharper execution and urgency in the following game. That’s especially true at home, where Denver now returns for a pivotal Game 3.

On the flip side, fading a team off a wire-to-wire, outlier win is a well-documented strategy. Everyone suddenly loves the Thunder — they finished with the league’s best record, were the top ATS team all year, and are now riding a tidal wave of public confidence. Yet the market didn’t move much. Despite the 43-point rout, the line stayed relatively steady, and Denver is still just a modest underdog at home. That restraint is the tell.

The oddsmakers know what we know: the blowout was an outlier, not a trend. Denver already proved they can hang with OKC in Game 1, and after getting punched in the mouth in Game 2, this sets up as the classic bounce-back spot. Rather than take the points, we’ll go straight to the moneyline — the value is clear.

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