Pinnacle  +5½ -106  BET365 +5½ -110  Sportsinteraction +5½ -110  888Sport +5½ -110 

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

San Antonio +5½ over Milwaukee

9:30 PM ET. The Spurs just suffered a soul-crushing loss to the Bulls, blowing a 19-point lead and losing outright in the final minute. That’s the kind of meltdown that makes bettors run for the hills, but that’s exactly when the market overcorrects—and when value shows up.

Milwaukee is the “safe” play here. After all, they’re the reigning NBA Cup champions and have seemingly turned the corner on their rough start to the season. The Bucks have won three straight against the Spurs, but those wins came as heavy double-digit favorites. Now, they’re laying just 5.5, a line that signals respect for San Antonio’s ability to compete.

Despite their recent struggles, the Spurs have a knack for pushing good teams to their limits. Milwaukee is just 8-9 SU against teams .500 or better, and the Bucks' inconsistency against capable squads makes them far from a lock here. Furthermore, the Spurs’ meltdown against Chicago provides a valuable teaching moment—this is still a well-coached team that will adjust. This is a prime spot for the Spurs to cover against an opponent that isn’t as reliable as the market suggests.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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