Pinnacle +145  BET365 +140 Sportsinteraction +140  888Sport  +140

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +145 ML over Sacramento

10:00 PM ET. There’s plenty to unpack here, so let’s dive right in. The headline-grabber is the suspension of Jimmy “Buckets” Butler, who’s been sidelined for seven games due to “conduct detrimental to the team.” Reports suggest Butler’s discontent stems from trade desires, creating a circus-like atmosphere around the Heat. The market sees Miami as a team in chaos, and such narratives tend to attract heavy action against the team in question, often creating hidden value.

Miami hasn’t done much to counter that perception. They’ve dropped two straight, including a 36-point drubbing by the Utah Jazz on Saturday, where they closed as nine-point favorites. Losing to the Jazz in such fashion is embarrassing by any standard, and the Heat’s lackluster effort only reinforces the “listless” label. On the flip side, Sacramento was in action just last night, dismantling Golden State by 30 points in a game where they were three-point underdogs. Add to that Sacramento’s earlier-season victory over Miami—a 111-110 thriller where Butler played—and the Kings look like a no-brainer play. But betting into this narrative plays right into every market inefficiency imaginable.

The oddsmakers know all this. They’ve accounted for Butler’s absence, Miami’s recent struggles, and Sacramento’s dominance of late. Yet, despite everything, they’ve hung a number that suggests Miami is still very much in this game. Why? Because the Heat’s roster, even without Butler, is deeper and more resilient than the market gives them credit for. The blowout loss to Utah was an outlier—an overreaction spot if there ever was one.

Let’s also not forget Sacramento is playing the second half of a back-to-back after an emotional high in San Francisco. Teams coming off massive wins in big spots often underperform the next night, especially against perceived weaker opposition. Miami, meanwhile, has had two full days to regroup and prepare, with a chance to turn the page on the Butler saga and prove their mettle.

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