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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit -1½ over Orlando

Little Caesars Arena – Detroit, MI

7:00 PM ET. The Pistons? Favored against a team that’s six games above .500 and has owned them in seven straight meetings? That’s a line that will leave the man on the street scratching his head and running to back Orlando. But as always, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

The market has a tendency to gravitate toward simple narratives, and this one practically writes itself. Orlando is “better,” Detroit is “bad,” and the Magic have won seven in a row in this matchup. To most, the plus-points on Orlando feel like a gift. The oddsmakers, however, know exactly what they’re doing, and the short price on Detroit should sound the alarm.

This is a classic case of situational value. The Magic are coming off a lengthy road trip and stepping into a well-documented trouble spot: the first game back home after an extended stint away. For a team like Orlando, which thrives in the comfort of its own arena (13-4 at home with an average margin of victory of +7), the road is a different story. Away from Orlando, the Magic are just 7-10 with a negative margin of victory (-2.9). Add the rest disadvantage—Detroit has an extra day to prepare—and the cracks in Orlando’s armor become glaring.

The market’s hesitation with Detroit is understandable. The Pistons are coming off a home loss to the Utah Jazz, one of the league’s most maligned teams, and their losing record makes them an unappealing bet on the surface. But bad losses often present good opportunities. Detroit has the rest advantage, the motivational edge, and the benefit of a market underestimating them. Trust the chalk here.

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