Pinnacle +164 BET365  +160 Sportsinteraction +160  888Sport +160 

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +164 over Charlotte

Capital One Arena – Washington, D.C.

7:00 PM ET. The market narrative is clear here, and it’s a trap. The Hornets are coming off three straight road losses and boast one of the worst road records in the NBA at 2-11. Despite this, the market has Charlotte favored, fueled by a revenge narrative after the Wizards beat them outright just last week. The thinking goes, “Surely, Charlotte won’t lose to Washington twice in a row?” But the market often overreacts to simplistic storylines like these, creating value for contrarians like us.

Washington’s 8-24 record makes them the league’s punching bag, but dig a little deeper, and you’ll find reasons to like them here. For starters, 75% of their wins have come at home. They’ve taken down heavyweights like Denver and Atlanta on this floor, which speaks volumes about their potential when things click. The Wizards have also faced the league’s toughest schedule, while Charlotte has played a middling slate ranked 13th.

In last week’s matchup, Washington didn’t just eke out a lucky win—they outshot Charlotte by a wide margin and matched them on the boards. The Hornets’ 19% performance from three-point range wasn’t an anomaly either. Charlotte is a volume shooter from beyond the arc (3rd in attempts) but ranks near the bottom in efficiency.

Spotting points on the road with a team like Charlotte, whose metrics scream inefficiency, is a recipe for disaster. Washington, on the other hand, has proven they can compete at home, even against stronger opposition. The market is overvaluing Charlotte’s supposed “bounce-back” and undervaluing Washington’s ability to take advantage of a weak road opponent. That’s where we step in.

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