Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle +8½ -109 BET365 +8½ -110 Sportsinteraction +8½ -110 888Sport +8½ -110
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Philadelphia +8½ over Boston
5:00 PM EST. The line for this Christmas Day clash was set months ago when the air was warm, and the holiday spirit was a distant thought. Boston opened as a modest 4.5-point favorite, but as the season unfolded, that number steadily climbed to where Philadelphia now takes back a hefty nine points. That rise may appear justified to the casual observer, but to those paying attention, it’s precisely where the value lies.
Oddsmakers didn’t need a crystal ball to set the opening line—they anticipated a competitive matchup back in the summer. Four months later, despite the contrasting win-loss records and narratives around these teams, the fact that this number has only doubled says plenty. Boston’s status as defending champions inflates their market value, leading to inflated point spreads. They’ve consistently been saddled with double-digit chalk against teams with better records and form than these Sixers, and yet here we are, staring at a beatable number.
Philadelphia, for its part, comes in as a disappointment to most. A losing record and underwhelming performances have dulled public perception of the Sixers, which is precisely why this line feels bloated. The Celtics are a juggernaut, no doubt, but their struggles to cover inflated numbers are well-documented. The market continues to overprice Boston, and when you add a rivalry matchup like this to the equation, volatility becomes a key factor.
Christmas Day is the NBA’s version of a national holiday—a stage as big as it gets in the regular season. Teams don’t just show up for these games; they treat them like playoff tilts. Rivalries are amplified, and chaos often reigns supreme. Metrics, trends, and records mean less on a day like this. Surprises abound, and the volatility that comes with a storied matchup like Boston vs. Philadelphia only adds to the unpredictability.
Backing Boston here is backing the premium, not the value. Even if the Celtics dominate this game, laying nine points is not rolling with the best of it. Philly is getting no love in the market, and that’s when the value on an underdog is often at its peak. This line is inflated, and we’ll gladly grab the points
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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.
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Our Pick
Philadelphia +8½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)