Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O115½ -103 BET365 O115½ -110 Sportsinteraction O115½ -105 888Sport O115½ -110

Oklahoma City/Golden State 1H over 115½ -103

10:00 PM EST. Less than two weeks ago, the Thunder and Warriors clashed at Oklahoma City and put up 280 points. The NBA market doesn't seem to think it'll feature anywhere near as many points in tonight's contest. Their first matchup had a closing total of 225.5, while today's listed total is at 228 and rising. Of course any Joe-blow could look at that fact alone and think, "well, the over is obviously the bet to make tonight," and more often than not that attracts sharper bettors to go the other way. "Fade the public!" is a mantra repeated all too often by professional bettors, but that sort of thinking is just as reductionist as blindly wagering tonight's over simply based on the most recent results. 

The reality is, the matchup and situation both support a lot of points tonight. Firstly, the Warriors foremost defender, Draymond Green, is suspended. After a fight broke out two nights ago in the T-Wolves/Warriors second clash, Draymond naturally put Rudy Gobert in a headlock. We're not surprised, and we doubt Steve Kerr and the Warriors are either. Regardless, not having Draymond Green is a big loss for the Warriors on both sides of the hardwood. That's especially the case on defense. The Thunder are a top-ten team in points in the paint and fastbreak points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his crew attack the rim with ferocity, and they're one of the best point shooting teams in the associate because of that style (49.2%, 3rd overall). Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren add to their offensive prowess, and their ball-movement is reminiscent of the Warriors in their glory days. Golden State has taken notice the last few seasons. Nearly. every one of their battles has produced a ton of points (261.8 on average in their last five meetings).

It's also worth noting that the Warriors are probably physically exhausted. Minnesota is clearly one of the best defenses teams in the NBA through three weeks, and they took it to the Warriors in two straight games. Golden State is limping into this one off four straight losses, and we're not sure they'll have the energy for yet another tough, physical matchup. Steph Curry is out tonight, probably partially why this total dropped, but Klay Thompson is flanked by offensive talent all around him and Kerr loves to experiment with his rotations in games like this. The young-bucks will look to pounce even harder with their leader gone- that's not a bad thing for our bet tonight either. 

OKC is top-6 in three-point shooting percentage (37.9%) and they run the floor at a top-ten pace. They're also heading into Thursday with some nice momentum, having won four of their last five games and ranking as the NBA's 7th best offense during that span. Their defense is actually 2nd best over the last 10 days, but the Warriors at home are not an offense we like to wager against, either. This has all the makings of another over on a total that checks out as way too low, even if it does feel very "public." 

Farley

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