Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +9 -110 BET365 +9 -110 Sportsinteraction +9 -110 888Sport +9 -110

Miami +9 over Denver

8:30 PM EST. Half of this NBA Finals played out the way it was drawn up, with the West's No. 1 seed, the Denver Nuggets, coasting through the conference en route to their first Finals appearance in franchise history. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has been a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs, averaging a triple-double in 15 playoff games, putting up mind-boggling numbers of 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game.

The Nuggets got here after knocking off the Timberwolves in five games, the Suns in six, and sweeping the Lakers in four games in the Western Conference Finals. While "The Joker" is their heart and soul, Denver runs deep with Canada's Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon, all providing valuable contributions on both ends of the floor. Murray has been a scoring machine, averaging 27.7 points per game.

With the betting favorites out of the way, let's look at the plucky Play-In Heat, who were not supposed to get this far. To say Miami is a one-man show might be somewhat unfair to everyone not named Jimmy Butler, but the reality is, if Butler was not on one of the great heaters we've seen in the postseason, the Heat would be playing in Denver tonight. Butler is the definition of a "gamer" – a player who demonstrates a unique blend of tenacity and skill, and a willingness to not be denied, which is an intangible the true greats have. Somehow, Butler has elevated his game to another level, averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in these playoffs.

If the Heat have a "Robin" to Butler's "Batman," it's Bam Adebayo, who has been hard to handle throughout the playoffs, averaging 16.8 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. After that, Miami is made up of a motley crew of undrafted players, including Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent, who have stepped up when called upon.

The Heat are about as "battle-tested" as a team can get coming into an NBA Finals after having played the Bulls in the Play-In Tournament, which then earned them a date with the No. 1-seeded Bucks in Round 1 in just five games. In Round 2, Miami met the Knicks and knocked off the No. 4 seed New York in six games, which led to their showdown with the No. 2 seeded Celtics. After going up 3-0 on Boston, Miami almost gave it all back but sacked up on the road in Beantown, winning Game 7.

The Heat last played on Monday night, while Denver has been idle for nine days. While we cannot predict which one of these teams will have the hot hand tonight, we are going to lean toward the squad that shot the lights out three days ago. Additionally, the Heat are playing with house money here, and they know it. Meanwhile, all the pressure is on the Nuggets, as they are a significant favorite to win their first NBA championship.

Finally, this inflated line has to be considered disrespectful in the Heat locker room. Should Denver be favored? Of course, but for a team that has not played competitive basketball in a week and a half, and has not really been challenged (all due disrespect to the Lakers, Suns, and T-Wolves), this line is a big mountain to climb. The Heat can win this game, but we're very content to stuff this significant pile of points in our back pockets and hope we do not need them.

Finnie

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