NBA Playoffs - Game 5
Phoenix +6½ -108 over Denver

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +6½ -108 BET365 +6½ -110 Sportsinteraction +6½ -110 888Sport +6½ -110

Phoenix +6½ over Denver

10:00 PM EST. This series has played out the way it’s supposed to with the Nuggets winning their games at home in Denver, while the Suns took care of business in The Valley, winning Games 3 and 4. Now tied at 2-2, the series shifts back to that sweet, skunky mountain air with Game 5 tipping off in the Mile High City.

If the script is to continue to play out as it is supposed to, the Nuggets are supposed to take Game 5 here and if Games 1 and 2 are an indication, Denver should waffle the Suns with ease. The Nuggets were favored by -4½-points in Game 1 and smashed the Suns, winning that game, 125-107. In Game 2, Denver was a -4-point favorite and it won again by double digits, 97-87.

The Nuggets are undefeated at home in their five playoff games, going 4-1 Against the Spread (ATS). They covered the first two games of this series with ease and now they are priced in a similar range tonight as they were in those first two nights in Denver. A breakdown of X’s and O’s of those games is not needed, as the Nuggets shot 43% from downtown in Game 1 to the Suns 30%. In Game 2, both teams were cold from beyond the arc, but the Nuggets still went 26% to the Suns 19%.

In Game 3, the Suns were 9-of-28 (32%) on their 3-pointers, while the Nuggets were 10-of-30 (33%), and Phoenix would go on to win and cover as a -4-point favorite (121-114). In Game 4, the Suns shot 45% (13-of-29) from beyond the arc and the Nuggets shot 32% (7-of-22). The Suns won and covered again, 129-124 (as a -1-point favorite).

We can’t predict which one of these teams is going to be the one to rain sweet terror from downtown, but the Suns have been locked in and they are as capable as any team to go off on any night. Even if the Nuggets are on their game too, these points are a nice cushion for us to put in our back pockets in a game the Suns are capable of winning. That’s our play, the Suns taking back inflated points.



Our Pick

Phoenix +6½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)