Posted April 26, before Game 5. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +110 BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +110 888Sport +110

Updated Series Wager

Milwaukee +115 over Miami

The Bucks are behind the eight-ball here as they trail the Heat 3-1 after losing Game 4, 119-115. Miami's Jimmy Butler had what is being called one of the greatest playoff performances in modern-day basketball as he dropped 56 points on the Bucks in Milwaukee. Few players can put their team on their backs like Butler, but there has to be some concern that nobody else is really doing their job for the Heat. Kyle Lowry had six points in 23:42, as did Kevin Love in his 22:13. Those 56 points by Butler were a Heat franchise record in the playoffs, and that game now ranks fourth in league history for most points scored in a postseason contest.

With the Game 4 loss, the Bucks are now on a dismal 1-5 Against the Spread (ATS) over their last six games going back to the regular season. By contrast, the Heat are making trips to the pay window with regularity, going 5-2 ATS over their last seven, including a 3-1 run in the four games played so far in this series.

There were three huge favorites in the Association yesterday, and all three underdogs covered with ease, with the Hawks knocking off the Celtics outright. Tonight, the Bucks are a significant double-digit favorite, but rather than simply playing them to cover tonight, we are more interested in the value presented by backing Milwaukee to come back and win this series. If the Bucks win tonight, as expected, they will be an -8-point favorite in Game 6 in Miami. Win that and the Bucks will be a double-digit favorite at home for Game 7. While there are a few "ifs" and "buts" in there, we only have to look at the NBA Championship odds to see how out of their element the Heat are against the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is still +575 to win the title despite the hole they are in, while the Heat are 50-1 up 3-1 with three chances to close out the Bucks. The oddsmakers do not respect Miami, which is our prompt to move in. Bucks will probably cover the -12 too.

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