Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Miami -6 ½ +105 over Milwaukee
*Please note that while we could play this number at -6 and lay the -110, we prefer to "sell" a half point and take back a plus price at -6½ +105. You may play it as you see fit.
7:40 PM EST. The Bucks played in a high profile prime time game last night in Atlanta on ESPN, where they won and covered as a -4½-point favorite, 114-105. With many eyes and wagers on that game under the bright lights, that result greatly influences the market. The Bucks were up big early and into the third quarter before either running out of gas or letting their foot off the pedal. We’re merely here to present the facts as unbiasedly as possible.
The Bucks are the Bucks, but we should note they are still without Khris Middleton, who has missed 13 games but took part in 5-on-5 drills earlier this week. Middleton will not play tonight, but this is not new. Over its last five games, Milwaukee is both 4-1 straight up and against the spread, however, the Bucks only knocked off one team with a winning record during that run (the disappointing Knicks). Milwaukee’s wins over Toronto, Washington and Atlanta aren’t that interesting. They’re routine if you will. What we want to look at are the Bucks recent losses going back to their December 15th game in Memphis, which was the night Middleton went down. Milwaukee would lose that game to the Grizzlies by 41 and they would add five more double digit defeats along the way, their last coming at home to Charlotte last Friday night, 138-109, as a 10-point favorite. To summarize, when the Bucks lose, they tend to lose big.
We cannot predict who will be the hotter shooting team tonight, but we do know that this will be the Bucks’ third game in four nights, the second half of a back-to-back, and it’s the last game of a four game road trip that started back on January 9.
Meanwhile, Miami has been sitting here waiting to take a crack at one of the top teams in the East. The Heat’s stock is low, as they are hovering just over .500 and are flirting with the play-in round. That’s not becoming of a defending conference runner-up, but the Heat are better than their record would indicate. The Heat are a top-5 side in Defensive Efficiency on the season, and they are also top-10 in that valuable analytic over their last three games. The Heat would be more than worthy of being the favorite if they were to catch the Bucks on their best day. That Miami catches Milwaukee in a favorable situation is the cherry on top.
Miami -6½ +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)