Posted at 3:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +135 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +138 888Sport +135

Indiana +145 over Miami

7:10 PM EST. The NBA is so challenging to handicap because the games are mostly a three-point shooting contest now, thus the team that hits a higher percentage of their triples is almost always the team that covers. We don’t have any tool which can forecast hot and cold shooting but what we do have is the ability to recognize good situational spots and/or decent value. This one has both, as the market perception of the Pacers is that they’re complete dregs but they are not.

Indiana plays with a massive chip on its shoulder and its rotation is looking better with each passing game. However, the Pacers only have three wins this year in eight tries and one of those victories came against Detroit. Indiana’s stock is low and will likely remain low for a few games so now is the time to buy. The Pacers have more scorers than they did a year ago. Buddy Hield, a veteran 3-point shooter, joined the team at the trade deadline a year ago, as did Tyrese Haliburton, who has made a point of shooting more this season. Bennedict Mathurin is averaging 14 field goal attempts per game as a rookie. Chris Duarte is truly heating up and is now a weapon the opposition has to deal with.

As for Miami, we have to question their motivation level for this one game. You see, the Heat are coming off two games v Toronto, two games v Golden State and two games v Sacramento. We wouldn’t even include Sac-Town but Miami lost to them in Sacramento and were looking to avenge that loss, which they did, in a hard fought, three point win in Miami. Pretty it was not. Thus after six games of rather intense action, the Heat have a one-off here in Indiana. They do not play again until Monday, at which time they’ll open a four-game homestand that will last eight full days. In a long season in which teams take nights off frequently, one of the challenges is trying to figure out when that off-game will occur. We cannot find one reason for the Heat to be motivated here or one reason to bring its “A” game. Pacers outright is the call.