Denver @ Oklahoma City
Denver -6½ -109 over Oklahoma City

Posted at 1:45 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -6½ -109 BET365 -6½ -110 SportsInteraction -6½ -110 888Sport -6½ -110

Denver -6½ over Oklahoma City

8:00 PM EST. The Nuggets, who had high expectations this season to be a top team in the West, are middling at 4-3 overall, with a 3-4 return at the pay window. Not great. For some perspective of just how low the Nugget stock has dropped thus far, we only need to look at their past outings. To open the season, Denver was a 6½-point favorite at Utah. They were then -5 at Portland (lost outright 135-110), then were -5 over the Lakers, -7½ over Utah and then -2½ at the Lakers last timeout. Denver would become the first team in the league to lose to LeBron and company. Again, not great. Now the Nuggets are just -6½ in Oklahoma City. It looks like a nice pile of points to take back, but buyer beware.

The Thunder have ripped off four wins in a row, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at the highest level of his career. Last time out, OKC knocked off the Magic, scoring 34 points on 12-of-18 shooting. The hype train on S.G.A. was rolling, with “M-V-P” chants raining down from the home crowd.

Not only are the Thunder winning, but they are paying out on the regular with trips to the pay window in four straight games and six of their seven games this season.

Situationally speaking, we catch the Thunder at the end of a run of five home games in six outings. After tonight, the Thunder head to Milwaukee and Detroit for games on Saturday and Monday. The last game of an extended homestand often finds the host bringing their "C" game.

We often discuss being “late to the party” or there being “no more room on the bandwagon” because it's true in many games, every day. In the case of the Thunder, OKC was supposed to be dregs. Bottom feeders in the West. Instead, they are hot out of the gate. There was value to be had on the Thunder, but that was two weeks ago. OKC is no longer off the radar nor so they offer up any value. The value is in betting against them because their stock has risen so sharply so quickly.

Our Pick

Denver -6½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

L.A. Lakers -3 -108 over Indiana