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NBA Western Conference Finals
Golden State -6½ -110 over Dallas
9:00 PM EST. Let’s just get this out of the way. The Warriors are not going back to Dallas for Game 6. No way, no how. From a pure value point of view, this is a deflated number, which must be bet. If the Mavericks keep this one inside of double digits, we’d be shocked.
The Warriors destroyed the Mavs at home in San Francisco in Game 1, 112-87, and followed that up with solid nine point wins in Game 2 (126-117) and Game 3, 109-100, the latter of which was in Dallas. Game 4 was a different story, as the Mavericks took it to the Dubs in a 119-109 win. Mavs’ coach Jason Kidd boasted that the Warriors have, “got to play zone because they can't play us one-on-one." Is Kidd watching the same series we are?
From an Xs and Os perspective, the Warriors have mixed up their defensive coverages between man and zone and held the Mavericks to just 23% three point shooting in Game 1 and 34% in Game 3. You cannot win in the Three-Point Shooting Association with numbers like that. Why did the Mavericks have so much success in Game 4? They shot the lights out (52.3% from the field and 47% from downtown). We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the Mavs shot well in Game 2 as well, but still lost by nine.
If you watched any of Game 4 on Tuesday night, you know that Warriors’ coach Steve Kerr’s head was elsewhere. He was not the only one. The tragedy in Uvalde, Texas ripped through the hearts of parents and compassionate human beings alike. A team often takes on the personality or mood of its coach. As Kerr himself said, basketball tonight does not matter".
We could write an entire esaay about what's happening in the Land of the Free but that's not in our wheelhouse. In our wheelhouse instead is value on an underpriced and uber-focused Warriors team that figures to back in their lane tonight to put the Mavs out of their misery. No chance of the Warriors not showing up. They had their "bad" game last time out. This is the response game.
Golden State -7 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)