Pinnacle +138 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +130 888Sport +130

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

UFC Vegas 95

UFC APEX - Las Vegas, NV

Streaming ESPN+

Marcin Tybura +140 over Serghei Spivac

9:30 PM EST. Marcin Tybura is known for his well-rounded skill set, as he has secured victories through nine knockouts, seven submissions, and nine decisions, which brings his record to 25-8. Tybura’s last fight saw him earn a submission victory over Tai Tuivasa, and it was a showcase of his ability to capitalize on opportunities both on the feet and on the ground. With a significant striking accuracy of 48% and a commendable takedown defense rate of 79%, Tybura’s experience and fight IQ are key assets against opponents who rely heavily on grappling. The first fight with Spivac in 2020 resulted in a decision win for Tybura, where he effectively neutralized Spivac’s grappling attempts and controlled the fight’s pace. Four years later, what’s changed?

Serghei Spivac is ranked No. 9 in the division and comes into the rematch with a record of 16-4, and he’s the chalk in this fight. In his last fight, Spivac was defeated by a technical knockout loss to Ciryl Gane after the latter finished the former with a flurry of punches in the second round of that bout last September. Since fighting Tybura, Spivac has gone 6-2, and the perception in the market is that he is coming into this rematch with “revenge” on his mind. However, the revenge angle is a tired one, and the reality is, as a favorite, especially one that is being pounded by an unsuspecting market (moving him from -115 to -160), Spivac leaves much to be desired.

The dynamics of this fight are fascinating, given their history and contrasting styles. Tybura’s ability to defend against Spivac’s takedowns and utilize his striking to control the fight will be crucial. Despite Spivac’s potential improvements, Tybura’s proven resilience and strategic mindset make him a strong contender to emerge victorious once again, reaffirming his position as a tough out in the heavyweight division. Tybura beat Spivac once, and at this inflated price, it’s worth a wager to see if he can do it again.

Sherwood

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