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Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

UFC 303 - Live on PPV

T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada

Diego Lopez by TKO/KO over Brian Ortega

11:45 PM EST. Count this fight among those with controversy at UFC 303, as this bout was moved to lightweight at the midnight hour after Brian Ortega was unable to make weight and was forced to abandon his cut or be removed from a card that has already suffered through several changes. When presented with that scenario, Diego Lopes accepted the reworked fight and he will be compensated for the change in weight classes. As of the time of this writing, both fighters had weighed in at 155 pounds and this fight is a go.

With that, Ortega has competed just five times since 2018, and he's lost three of those fights. The first two defeats are perhaps forgivable, as they came in UFC title challenges against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. However, the other loss happened because of an injury when Ortega dislocated his shoulder during a 2022 meeting with Yair Rodriguez and could not continue. After a year and a half of recovery, Ortega returned in February and choked out Rodriguez in a rematch, but forgive us if we aren’t too jazzed up about that victory. While some view it as a testament to his resilience, others see it as a troubling pattern of getting outclassed before staging a comeback. This trend of absorbing significant damage before turning the fight around is risky, especially against a fighter like Diego Lopes.

Diego Lopes has been a breath of fresh air in the 145-pound division, and we doubt that abandoning his weight cut is going to harm him too much here. Known initially as UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s jiu-jitsu coach, Lopes has rapidly made a name for himself. With three consecutive first-round finishes over the last 10 months, Lopes has proven to be a legitimate threat in the division. His only UFC loss came against the highly-ranked Movsar Evloev, a bout he took on just five days’ notice.

Lopes is not just a BJJ specialist; he has developed a well-rounded game, including double-digit knockout wins. His aggressive style and finishing ability make him a formidable opponent for anyone, Ortega included, even at 155 lbs, and that’s how we’re going to bet it. Lopes by TKO/KO.

Sherwood

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