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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

UFC on ABC 6 - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Wager: Sergei Pavlovich wins in 1st round

Best Odds: +144 at Pinnacle

4:45 PM EST. The co-main event of UFC on ABC 6 is a war between two Russian heavyweights, that fact alone brings an ominous feeling into the bout— the nature of both fighters make it even scarier. 

47 fights in, Alexander Volkov has seen it all. Standing at 6’7” and appropriately calling himself “Drago,” the UFC veteran has battled names like Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, Alistair Overeem, Ciryl Gane, and Tom Aspinall. Although not always on the victorious side, Volkov owns a formidable list of heavyweights that he’s conquered in his 8 year stint in the UFC, including dangerous strikers like Jairzinho Rozenstruik. But, for the most part, Volkov has fallen against the elites, and his size can be a weakness in the clutch. Sure, Volkov is long and rangey, but he’s also not as thick-boned or muscly as most of his opponents, all of whom are among the scariest humans walking the earth. That’s a frightening vulnerability against the guy he’ll face in Saudi Arabia, especially considering how angry his opponent should be when they enter the octagon.

Sergei Pavlovich is a scary, scary individual. Built like a bull, Pavlovich has been reigning terror on the UFC heavyweight division since 2019, mowing through six straight beasts by way of TKO or KO in the first round before his most recent bout, a first round loss to Tom Aspinall. Of course Aspinall is the #1 contender for the heavyweight title, a big PPV that will come after Jon Jones battles Stipe Miocic one last time. In any case, Pavlovich losing to a guy like Aspinall has no bearing on Saturday’s fight, nor is it something to factor as a negative. The Russian brute got caught by the Englishman, a rare bruiser who can match Pavlovich’s strength. And when we say rare, we mean it. Maybe Derek Lewis, probably Jon Jones, probably not many others could match Sergei’s punching power, but one thing is for sure— Volkov isn’t that guy. 

Volkov uses his size to create downward leverage. Who wouldn’t, at 6’7”? He picks apart his opponents, and if they don’t have dangerous striking or advanced wrestling skills, he’s probably getting the best of his enemy. The guy is 37-10, after all. But he’s not some gangly Mike Tyson, either. Sergei Pavlovich’s power is different, like the way Derrick Lewis’ power is different, and we don’t love that for Volkov. “Drago” is crafty for his size, but one punch landed by Pavlovich will be enough to end his night. Pavlovich is coming off a loss, the most important bout of his career, where he failed to get it done. In response, we expect an angry and more aggressive Sergei than usual, which, we might've mentioned a few times in this article, is a rather terrifying thought. Volkov is no easy customer, and he’s fighting to claim top dog for Vladimir Putin and Mother Russia, too. Neither guy will let this go into the second round, and we’d much rather be on Sergei’s side when the bombing begins.

Farley

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