UFC Vegas 73
Angela Hill +145 over Mackenzie Dern

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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UFC Vegas 73 - UFC Apex - Las Vegas, NV

Angela Hill +145 over Mackenzie Dern

10:50 PM EST.10:50 PM EST. Mackenzie Dern, a former standout in the jiu-jitsu circuit, had a strong start to her UFC career, racking up six wins in her first seven fights, including four submission victories. However, she has struggled to maintain her position in the rankings, losing two of her last three fights. The last time we saw Dern, she lost a majority decision to Yan Xiaonan back in October of 2022.

Dern has been spooked by the judges' scorecards, whose scores have not been in her favor. "You need to be leaving the round and knowing, 'I’m winning here, I’m losing here, okay, I needed to steal the round. What did the judges see? That’s the tactic I was able to train for this camp. It was more about understanding the MMA game and how we use the judges, and you do steal things. You steal the round when you do this, instead of me going for a submission and falling on bottom and maybe they steal the round." It sounds like Dern doesn't know if she should crap or wind here.

Meanwhile, Angela Hill is coming off back-to-back wins over quality competition in Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote. This is a classic "grappler" versus "striker" matchup, as Hill, who has a Muay Thai background, has some of the hardest punches at 115 lbs. Hill has demonstrated serviceable takedown defense throughout her career, and with Dern's takedown rate at a poor 11%, Hill is going to have a chance to get her shots in.

While the oddsmakers favor Dern, we do not. This fight is much closer to a 50/50 proposition than this line suggests. While she's highly regarded and the 8th-ranked fighter in her division, we have questions about whether Dern's head is still in the game. She's going through a nasty divorce from her husband, professional surfer Wesley Santos. If that wasn't enough, Dern also changed managers and switched gyms over the last year. At this point in her career, this should be the time that Dern is putting it all together. Instead, her game and her life are in pieces. That makes her a risky favorite in this five-round fight. Considering all of those variables both in and out of the cage, the value to be had on Angela Hill here is tremendous.




Our Pick

Angela Hill +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)