Pinnacle +105    BET365  +105 Sportsinteraction  +105 888port  +105

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +105 over Washington

Nationals Park – Washington, D.C.

6:45 PM ET. Let’s get one thing straight: the Nationals have no business being favored here. None. This is a bad baseball team with a terrible bullpen, a negative run differential, and a starter on the bump whose peripherals are crying out for regression. And yet, they’re favored. Why? Because they didn’t get embarrassed by the Mets this week? Because they “fought hard”? Please.

Washington got swept. They blew a gem from MacKenzie Gore. They coughed up leads. They ran out of arms. And now they’re supposed to be chalk because they “looked competitive”? That’s a narrative, not a number. And narratives don’t pay.

Miami’s no juggernaut either — let’s not pretend otherwise — but the Fish have been in games. They’ve dropped six of eight, but all six losses were by two runs or fewer. That’s not flailing — that’s coin-flip variance. They just hung 11 runs on Tampa. They’ve been right there. And nobody cares. We do.

Edward Cabrera gets the nod for Miami. His ERA (4.04) looks pedestrian, but the supporting cast is sharp: 3.45 xERA, 11.1 K/9, and a bloated .336 BABIP that’s bound to normalize. This is a guy who misses bats and doesn’t get the breaks — perfect buy-low candidate. His counterpart, Mitchell Parker, is the inverse. ERA over 4.40, but a .255 BABIP and just 6.1 K/9? That’s not pitching well, that’s pitching lucky. And it won’t last.

Behind Parker? The worst bullpen in the National League — dead last in ERA (5.70), WHIP (1.58), and strikeout rate. That’s a landmine waiting to explode. Miami has the edge on the mound, a push at the plate, and the superior bullpen — yet they’re the underdog. That’s our cue. This is a mispriced game, plain and simple.

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