Pinnacle -1½ +145    BET365  -1½ +145 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +145  888port  -1½ +145

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston -1½ +145 over New York Yankees

Fenway Park – Boston, MA

7:10 PM ET. We backed the Yankees yesterday because the number was off and the matchup tilted in their favor. They won, didn’t cover, and now we flip the script because that’s what value demands. This market doesn’t hand out rewards for loyalty — just opportunities. And tonight, the value lies with the Red Sox.

Boston isn’t getting a lot of love. They’re two games under .500 and up against a team with a shiny 42-25 record. But this line has nothing to do with standings or reputation. It’s about pitching — and Garrett Crochet is an absolute menace right now. His surface stats (2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) only scratch the surface. The deeper you dig, the sharper the fangs: 11+ K/9, 2.65 FIP, 2.93 SIERA, and a ground-ball rate near 47%. The kid is painting corners, changing eye levels, and carving hitters like a surgeon. Yeah, the Yankees touched him up last time out — but it was smoke and mirrors. One bad inning, a couple flared singles, and that’s baseball. The metrics say it wasn’t real.

On the other side? Ryan Yarbrough. A soft-tossing lefty with a profile that doesn't play in Fenway. He’s sporting a 4.47 FIP, he doesn’t miss bats, and he gives up loud contact. Boston already torched him for eight runs in four innings less than a week ago. Nothing about his stuff suggests he’ll fare any better this time around — especially against a Sox lineup that crushes southpaws (.272 average, second in MLB). That’s not a one-off.

This number is soft because the perception is skewed. The public sees “Yankees +1.5” and salivates. But the books didn’t miss. They’re daring you to take the team with the better record, the bigger brand, and the more casual money behind them. We won’t bite. Boston is the right side, the right pitcher, and the right matchup.

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