Pinnacle +145    BET365  +145 Sportsinteraction  +145  888port  +145

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco +145 over LA Dodgers

Dodger Stadium – Los Angeles, CA

10:10 PM ET. You can’t ask for a cleaner setup. The Dodgers are rolling out their shiny new toy, and the market is eating it up like it’s gospel. Meanwhile, Logan Webb just keeps showing up, punching the clock, and dealing — and nobody seems to care. That apathy is our edge.

Let’s start with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He’s got the pedigree, the ERA (2.78), and the highlight reel to match. But dig into the stat sheet and the shine starts to wear. His .250 BABIP is among the lowest in the league, meaning he’s benefitting from some serious good fortune. Soft liners are turning into outs. Missed spots are being fouled back. He’s walking more than 3 per nine, and eventually, the ball is going to find grass. This guy’s been great — but not as great as the market thinks.

Now cue Logan Webb. Same ERA (2.58), but a pedestrian 5-5 record because his offense ghosts him more often than not. Still, Webb’s command is elite — 1.75 BB/9 — and he’s keeping barrels to a minimum despite one of the worst BABIPs in baseball (.342). That’s not bad pitching, that’s bad luck. And yet, here he is, outperforming Yamamoto in FIP (2.13 vs. 2.90), SIERA (2.55 vs. 3.05), and WAR (2.8 to 1.9). Every advanced metric says Webb is better, period.

Then there’s consistency. Webb has more quality starts than almost anyone in the league. He gives you six, three or fewer, like clockwork. That’s a stabilizer, and it gives us a fighting chance in a game the books are pricing like it’s a mismatch.

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