Pinnacle  +140    BET365  +140 Sportsinteraction  +140  888port  +140

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Seattle +140 over Arizona

Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ

9:40 PM ET. Let’s not overthink this one. Seattle is a live dog, and Merrill Kelly is begging to be faded. Kelly’s box score looks like something out of a pitching clinic — 6-2, 3.43 ERA — but it’s all a mirage. A .238 BABIP and a strand rate flirting with 80% have made him look far cleaner than he is. Dig a little and you’ll find a 47% hard-hit rate — that’s loud contact, every other ball — and yet the results keep bouncing his way. That’s not command. That’s pure, uncut variance. Kelly’s running hot, and we’re here to catch the fall.

The D-backs are asking Kelly to play magician with an 89-91 MPH fastball and a pitch-to-contact profile that’s walking a razor’s edge. But those edges dull quickly, especially against a Mariners lineup that’s built to punish mistakes. Seattle can hit — they’ve got muscle, and they don’t need much to change the game with one swing. Kelly’s been living dangerously, and tonight could be the night it bites him.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock doesn’t need to win the Cy Young. He just needs to keep the M’s in it — because Arizona doesn’t win with dominance, they win with chaos. This team gives up over five runs a night, their bullpen leaks, and even when they do get a quality start, it often unravels late. Arizona doesn’t win clean, and that’s exactly why laying juice with them is a fool’s errand.

The M’s are priced like they’re outmatched. They’re not. They’ve got the bats, the better bullpen, and they’re facing a starter skating on regression ice so thin it’s cracking under his feet. We’ll take the +140 and wait for the splash.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v