Pinnacle  +120   BET365   +120 Sportsinteraction  +120  888port +120

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +120 over Chicago

LoanDepot Park – Miami, FL

1:10 PM ET. At first glance, this might look like a no-brainer. The Cubs are 29-20, sitting atop the NL Central, and just finished dismantling the Marlins 14-1. Miami, meanwhile, is 19-28 and struggling to gain traction. On paper—and to the eye—the Cubs clearly pass the smell test. So why is the line so short?

That’s the question you should be asking when oddsmakers post a modest price on a surging team against a supposed bottom-feeder. When something doesn’t add up, it’s usually worth digging into—and this one’s worth a closer look.

Let’s start with the pitching matchup. Chicago trots out Cade Horton, making just his second career MLB start. Horton was unremarkable in his debut, giving up three runs over five innings against the White Sox—hardly a lineup that puts pressure on opposing arms. He was buoyed by generous run support and a soft opponent. He won’t get that same luxury here.

Miami counters with Max Meyer. His 3-4 record and 4.47 ERA don’t paint the full picture. A bloated .328 BABIP—one of the worst in the majors—suggests he’s been on the wrong end of variance. Meyer’s 3.89 FIP is a far better indicator of his performance. With nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings and a 52% groundball rate, Meyer has the arsenal to quiet a Cubs lineup that leans heavily on power.

Yes, Miami looked lifeless yesterday, but baseball is all about matchups—and today’s favors the Fish far more than the market implies. The short price tells a story. It says this isn’t a mismatch. It says Max Meyer has a legitimate chance to outduel a green, untested Horton. And if Meyer sees even a hint of the positive regression he’s due for, Miami’s path to a win becomes very real. We’ll gladly walk that path.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.