Pinnacle  +120   BET365   +120 Sportsinteraction  +120  888port +120

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Mets +120 over Boston

Fenway Park – Boston, MA

6:45 PM ET. The last time we saw Tylor “The Virus” Megill on the mound, it wasn’t pretty: five walks, four runs, four hits, and just 2.2 innings against the Yankees in the Bronx. That clunker marked his fourth loss of the year and bumped his ERA to 3.74. With that fresh in mind—and facing a Red Sox lineup averaging nearly five runs per game—it’s easy to assume Megill is in line for more punishment at Fenway.

Especially when matched up against Garrett Crochet, who comes in with a 4-3 record and a shiny 2.00 ERA, this looks like a clear pitching edge for Boston. Combine that with a bullpen that helped blank the Mets yesterday, and it’s easy to buy the narrative. But here’s where perception starts to peel away from reality.

Despite that recent blow-up, Megill’s peripherals are quietly strong. A .321 BABIP suggests he's been snakebitten by poor luck, and his 3.14 FIP reveals a performance level well above what his ERA implies. Compare that to Crochet’s 2.80 FIP—elite, yes, but not miles ahead—and you start to see that this isn’t the mismatch the market assumes. Crochet’s xERA is 3.14, over a full run higher than his actual ERA, while Megill’s xERA sits at 3.54, lower than his current mark. The real gap? Minimal.

There’s more: Crochet has stranded 83% of runners—an unsustainable clip—while Megill’s strand rate is just 69%, pointing to upside in future outings. Megill also holds the strikeout edge, posting 11.63 K/9 compared to Crochet’s 10.43. He still has the stuff to miss bats, even against a dangerous lineup.

Offensively, the teams are close enough to cancel each other out. But the bullpen edge tilts toward New York. The Mets’ relievers sport a 3.01 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, both better than Boston’s 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. If this turns into a battle of bullpens late, we prefer the visitors.

Megill is a strong bounce-back candidate, and the metrics point to this being far more of a coin flip than the price suggests. We’ll trust the numbers—not the narrative—and back the Mets to get it done in Boston.

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