Pinnacle  -1½ +185   BET365   -1½ +185 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +185 888port  -1½ +185

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay -1½ +185 over Milwaukee

George M. Steinbrenner Field – Tampa, FL

7:05 PM ET. This is a classic example of narrative creating value — and we’re more than happy to exploit it. The chatter heading into this one is predictable: “Tampa Bay’s offense is too hot-and-cold,” and “Jose Quintana has been solid for Milwaukee.” That’s the surface-level take. But the oddsmakers clearly aren’t buying it, opening this game as a straight pick’em. That’s your first clue.

Let’s talk Quintana. Yes, he’s 4-1 with a shiny 2.83 ERA, and yes, that looks impressive at first glance. But dive deeper and you’ll find some red flags:

xERA: 4.22

FIP: 4.38

Strand rate: 88%

Those are unsustainable numbers. Quintana’s surface stats are being buoyed by good fortune — not elite pitching. Regression is lurking. The sportsbooks know it, and that’s why Milwaukee isn’t favored here despite public perception.

Meanwhile, Zack Littell and the Rays don’t inspire much confidence at a glance — 2-5 record, 4.61 ERA, sub-.500 team. But again, it’s about what the market isn’t telling you: If Milwaukee really had the edge, they’d be favored. They're not. Instead, we’re looking at a coin-flip matchup with a total of 9 — and juice to the over — which signals an expectation for offense. That opens the door for a run-line play.

If Tampa Bay gets to Quintana (and there’s every reason to believe they can), the potential to win by multiple runs is built into the way this game is priced. The value here is clear. In a game the market sees as even, we’re getting +180 to lay 1.5 runs — a smart bet when the total is high and the fade candidate is overperforming his metrics.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.