Pinnacle  -1½ +140   BET365  -1½ +140  Sportsinteraction  -1½ +140  888port  -1½ +140 

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston -1½ +140 over Kansas City

Kauffman Stadium – Kansas City, MO

7:40 PM ET. Kansas City comes into this one red-hot, having won nine of their last ten and riding a five-game win streak. The Royals are 23-16 overall, and a blistering 15-5 at home. On the other side, Boston just crept over .500 and sits below average on the road at 9-10. So naturally, the question is: why are the Red Sox road favorites here? The answer lies beneath the surface, starting with pitching.

Michael Lorenzen gets the nod for Kansas City. His stat line — 3-3 with a 4.23 ERA — doesn’t raise red flags, but his peripherals paint a very different picture:

Strand Rate: 82% (unsustainably high)

FIP: 5.19 (a full run worse than ERA)

WHIP: 1.41

Ground Ball Rate: 39%

In short: Lorenzen’s been living on borrowed time. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy facing a Boston lineup that’s averaging nearly 5 runs per game. That’s a problem.

Boston counters with Hunter Dobbins, whose profile is far more encouraging:

2-1, 3.78 ERA

xERA: 3.38

FIP: 4.19

WHIP: 1.32

Ground Ball Rate: 45%

BABIP: .305 (unlucky)

Dobbins has quietly outperformed his box score, and his numbers suggest room for even more positive regression. He now faces a Kansas City offense that ranks 26th in runs per game (3.56) — one of the league’s weakest.

This is a classic sell-high/buy-low spot. The Royals’ recent run has bloated their market value, while Boston is being priced based on results — not process. But the pitching matchup, offensive upside, and line movement all favor the Sox.

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