Pinnacle  -1½ +180   BET365   -1½ +180 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +180   888port  -1½ +180

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -1½ +180 over San Francisco

Target Field – Minneapolis, MN

8:10 PM ET. This one is straightforward. San Francisco might be the sucker bet of the day. The Giants, tied for the best record in Major League Baseball, are being priced as slight underdogs against a Minnesota team sitting two games below .500. On paper, this looks like a gift. And with Chris Paddack — the same Chris Paddack who opened the year with a double-digit ERA — on the mound, the line feels even more baffling. Yet Minnesota is the favorite. That alone should raise eyebrows.

Let’s peel back the layers. Paddack’s surface numbers still look rough — 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA — but that ERA is bloated by early-season meltdowns. He gave up nine earned runs in his season debut, and followed it with a shaky outing against Houston. Since then? He’s allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Quietly, he’s stabilized — and the oddsmakers are clearly pricing in that progression.

Jordan Hicks goes for the Giants. He can light up the radar gun, but that hasn’t translated to success: 1-3 with a 6.03 ERA and major command issues. Neither pitcher is likely to work deep into the game, which brings the bullpens into focus.

On the surface, San Francisco owns the edge:

Giants bullpen: 2.47 ERA, 1.06 WHIP (elite)

Twins bullpen: 3.42 ERA, 1.17 WHIP (solid)

However, Minnesota has a clear strikeout advantage — 149 Ks to San Francisco’s 119 — and that’s critical against a Giants lineup ranked 7th in most strikeouts and just 24th in batting average. Minnesota makes more contact and is far less prone to swing and miss — giving them the better chance to manufacture offense.

Despite the disparity in records, the underlying numbers — and more importantly, the line — are flashing value on the Twins. The books aren’t fooled by San Francisco’s win total or Paddack’s early numbers, and neither are we.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.