Pinnacle   -1½ +175 BET365 -1½ +175 Sportsinteraction   -1½ +175 888port -1½ +175

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Houston -1½ +175 over Detroit

Dalkin Park – Houston, TX

8:10 PM ET. Detroit rolls in with an impressive 18-10 record, a respectable 6-6 mark on the road, a four-game winning streak, and Jack Flaherty taking the hill with a glossy 2.63 ERA. Houston, meanwhile, is just a game over .500 and counters with Ronel Blanco, owner of an ugly 5.09 ERA. No surprise then that the market is flocking to Detroit — the surface stats practically demand it, but scratch the surface and a very different picture emerges.

Flaherty’s xERA sits at 3.55. Blanco’s? 3.62. Virtually identical. Their fastball velocities are a dead heat — Flaherty at 93.4 mph and Blanco at 93.5 mph. The supposed gulf between these two starters doesn’t exist once you peel back the layers. In fact, Blanco’s higher ERA is largely the product of bad luck: a .262 BABIP combined with a meager 68% strand rate. Flaherty, on the other hand, has enjoyed a .250 BABIP and an 84% strand rate — fortune favoring the numbers.

Even the bullpens line up similarly. Houston and Detroit rank among MLB’s best relief units, separated by mere fractions in ERA and WHIP. This isn’t a mismatch — it’s a coin flip disguised as one because the Tigers have been the "hot" team and Flaherty's surface stats shine.

We don't bet the headlines. We bet the hidden value.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------