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NLCS Game 3
N.Y. Mets -105 over Los Angeles
8:08 PM EST. If it wasn’t clear why the Dodgers—winners of 98 games in the regular season and no. 1 seed in the NL—weren’t the odds-on favorite in many circles to win the NLCS in a walk, it became evident in Game 2, when their patchwork pitching strategy’s limitations were on full display. While it felt like the Mets were going out of their way to set up yet another “lol Mets” moment, their bullpen held serve after a sixth-inning defensive hiccup and New York did what they needed to do, getting a much needed W behind staff ace Sean Manaea and sending the series back to Queens in a 1-1 deadlock.
If you had to give a TED Talk on why aggregated postseason statistics are useless at best and misleading at worst, then Game 3 of the NLCS would offer plenty of useful material from both starting pitchers’ resumes. Walker Buehler (RHP - LAD) had a glittering 2.94 ERA in 15 postseason starts from 2018-2021 … before his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. Luis Severino’s (RHP - NYM) career postseason line isn’t nearly as impressive as Buehler’s, but he had plenty of opportunities in big October games for his prior team, the New York Yankees, from 2017-2022. While the limits aren’t nearly as dramatic as Buehler’s, it is safe to say the 2024 version of Sevy is quite different from previous iterations.
Severino’s postseason game logs tell a story of a pitcher who has done just enough to get by; the results from his last outing in Philadelphia in the NLDS show us why you’ve got to watch the games, nerds. Severino was masterful for 5.2 innings, relying even more heavily on his sweeper against righties than he did during the regular season to neuter one of the best lineups in one of the best offensive parks in baseball. Then he ran out of gas quickly, allowing back-to-back dongs to Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos before completing six and making his exit. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza won’t have the same disadvantage of a shorthanded pen after an off day yesterday; that combined with the extra rest for Sevy could make this a particularly challenging matchup for the Dodgers against a pitcher who sported a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this year.
To say Buehler is a shadow of his (second) pre-Tommy John self feels unkind to the shadows. He managed to get through five rough innings, faced 24 batters, and struck out none of them in a Game 3 NLDS loss to the Padres, making him the 29th pitcher in postseason history to face at least that many hitters with zero Ks. Buehler’s best bet is to move away from the four-seamer he relied on so heavily in San Diego and mix in more sweepers, his one pitch that is above average according to StuffPro. Between the off day yesterday and the fact that Roberts didn’t use any of his premium relievers in Game 2 it is extremely unlikely Buehler will once again be left in there for an extended period if things go sideways early. Dude is as close to batting practice out there as any pitcher we have seen this season.
Outside of the Mets five-run outburst in the second that was punctuated by Vientos’ grand slam this was arguably the weakest two-game stretch for New York since their stinker of a series sweep in Seattle by the Mariners on August 9-11. One significant reason for their relative ineffectiveness has been the bottom third of the lineup, a strength during the regular season that has become a liability in October. The 7-8-9 hitters for the Metropolitans posted a .710 OPS during the regular season. That sounds meager but was good for third best in the majors, behind only the Diamondbacks and Brewers. So far this October, those same slots have provided a paltry .175/.223/.196 line. It might not happen tonight because the Mets are coming off a win but McNeil and/or Harrison Bader might supplant Iglesias and Taylor in the lineup sooner rather than later. If the Mets can get any level of production from these three slots it won’t matter who the Dodgers are rolling out there unless they’ve got a time machine and 1988 Orel Hershiser.
If there is a reason for the Mets to be alarmed it’s that we haven’t seen cheat code-level Ohtani yet and he has been merely ordinary this October. Pitchers have been attacking him with more breaking stuff, which has led to Ohtani getting out in front of a lot of pitches, resulting in lots of soft contact and grounders to the right side of the infield. It’s far more likely Ohtani is going through a relative mini slump than that he has been completely figured out in seven postseason contests. Of far more significant concern is Freeman, who is clearly playing hurt and whose production has most likely suffered as a result—especially in the power department; while he’s hitting for a reasonable average, he doesn’t have an extra-base hit to his name thus far.
While it’s fun to keep writing “the vibes” and “New York Mets” over and over while laughing maniacally, the data does support the idea that a big part of the team’s turnaround was how they thrived in front of the hometown faithful. After starting the season 11-19 at home the team has since put up an incredible 37-15 record at Citi Field (including the postseason). It appears as though the market gives the Dodgers the edge (game opened at a pick‘em) on the strength of their offensive prowess and there’s no reason to believe the best regular season team in the NL can’t win a Game 3 on the road, but we’re light years removed from L.A.’s overpowering three-game sweep of the Amazins at Citi in late May. Of course the Mets can win here and frankly, unless Buehler gets very lucky, New York is in position to put up a crooked number early.
Sherwood
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Our Pick
N.Y. Mets -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)