Pinnacle +129 ET365 +120 Sportsinteraction +120 888Sport +120

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

NLDS Game 5

San Diego over Los Angeles

8:08 EST. Yu Darvish started the second game of the series for the Padres. He delivered a gem, allowing three hits, two walks, and one run while striking out three over seven innings. Through four games, it’s the only quality start of the series on either side.

Darvish throws a variety of pitches. In beating the Dodgers Sunday, he leaned heavily on his slider, using it in half his offerings to the Dodgers’ right-handed hitters and about a third of the time against lefties. Max Muncy’s second-inning single was hard-hit (106 mph) but the other two hits he allowed, to Teoscar Hernández on a grounder up the middle and a Gavin Lux bloop to short center—both singles—were seeing-eye hits. If you wanted to gripe, he got only eight whiffs all night on the 82 pitches he threw (53 of them strikes). As he’s aged, Davish has become more of a pitch-to-contact guy, as his strikeout rate has declined for five straight seasons. When he’s on, as he was Sunday, he induces soft contact. When he’s not, he can get lit up, and he had only five quality starts in his 16-start season (6 of 17 counting Sunday).

Dave Roberts waited until the 11th hour to pick between Yoshi Yamamoto (manager Dave Roberts said he’ll “be a part of it” yesterday), who started the first game of the series, or Flaherty, who started the second. Both got rocked: Yamamoto five runs in three innings, Flaherty four runs in 5.1. (Flaherty’s plunking of Fernando Tatis Jr. to start the sixth inning was a catalyst for the nonsense that followed).

Yamamoto, in only his fifth start since returning from the injured list for a shoulder strain, struggled with command, getting only 34 strikes among his 60 pitches. The Dodgers were behind 3-0 before he got his second out of the first inning. Yamamoto’s mostly a fastball/curve/split pitcher, but he mixes in an occasional cutter, slider, and sinker with a profile that looks remarkably similar to Darvish’s minus the fancy extras. Perhaps a random knuckle-curve would have helped: Padres batters weren’t particularly fooled by him, swinging and missing on only five of his 60 pitches. He was able to find the zone only with his fastball, 76% of which were strikes. He threw 35 other pitches, 20 of them for balls.

The starting pitchers on both sides will be on a minuscule leash. So far in this series, 28 of the 43 runs scored (65%) have crossed the plate in the first three innings. Both managers will be desperate to avoid an early deficit. Both teams will be able to empty out their bullpen in this game regardless of their starters’ success. The Championship Series starts Sunday, so there are availability concerns, but they need to get there first.

For the record, 15 pitchers appeared in Thursday night’s game but the only one to throw more than 30 pitchers was Padres starter Dylan Cease. This will be an all-hands-on-deck game. There have been 43 runs scored in this series, and almost nobody’s been unscathed. Only five relievers—Los Angeles’ Hudson, Phillips, and Vesia, and San Diego’s Adam and Suarez—have managed to allow no runs with a WHIP below 1.00. The Padres would love to be able to shut down the game with their closer, Robert Suarez, who retired the four Dodgers he faced on 17 pitches, yielding a popup, grounder, and two strikeouts while earning a save in Game 3, but that assumes a late-inning lead. If you’re annoyed by endless pitching changes in contemporary baseball, you might want to find another source of entertainment tonight.

Padres outfielders, especially Profar and Merrill, have flashed some serious leather during the series, and Luis Arraez has played a surprisingly solid first base. The Dodgers’ defense has been all about who shows up. Ideally, Freddie Freeman’s at first, Miguel Rojas at shortstop, Max Muncy at third, and Tommy Edman in center. With Freeman missing Thursday’s game with his sprained ankle and Rojas nursing an adductor strain, the Dodgers moved Muncy from third to first, installed Edman at short, and flip-flopped Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández between third and center. Roberts indicated that Freeman’s in and Rojas is out for today’s game, so Hernández will likely replace Taylor, who wore a golden sombrero Thursday night, in center.

The flip side of the teams scoring 43 runs in four games is that the offenses have been OK. The Padres’ OPS through the first four games of the series, .778, is ahead of their Championship Season average of .745, though the Dodgers’ .716 is well behind their .781 in the prior 162 games. Tatis is batting .438/.500/1.188 and David Peralta’s at .400/.400/.800. The only notably cold hitters on the Padres are Kyle Higashioka, who bats ninth and isn’t there for his bat anyway, and Arraez, who has only three singles (and one strikeout) in 18 plate appearances. For the Dodgers, the 12-hit, 8-run barrage Thursday night improved a lot of batters’ numbers, with everyone in the starting lineup other than Taylor collecting at least one hit.

The starting pitchers in this series have struck out only 9.3% of the batters they faced, 8.8% excluding Thursday’s Dodgers opener, Ryan Brasier. When batters swing early in these games, they’ve made contact.

There is nothing above that we have mentioned that gives the Dodgers an edge nor is there anything that gives the Friars an edge. That brings us once again full circle to value. In what is essentially a 50/50 proposition, we’ll take heads +120 to beat tails at -140. That makes sense, no

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------