Pinnacle +102 ET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -105

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

ALDS Game 3

Kansas City over N.Y. Yankees

7:08 PM EST. Like Alex Cobb, Clarke Schmidt has had his own limited-workload respite this year, but it was hardly a vacation, and wasn’t by choice. He missed all of June, July and August with a lat strain before returning in September, and his last few outings didn’t go the way he would have hoped. In his last three starts of the regular season, he gave up one, three and four earned runs, and saw his ERA creep up from 2.37 to 2.85. Perhaps the most valuable tool in his arsenal is the knuckle curve, which he throws in place of a traditional curveball, and boasts nearly eight more inches of horizontal break than the MLB average.

The injury was a shame, because Schmidt was on his way to a breakout in his fifth full season. If there’s a red flag here, it’s his sinker, which he uses about 20% of the time against both right- and left-handers. To the latter, the secondary fastball is fine; to the right-handers, it’s the equivalent of the shipwrecked cartoon character seeing it take the form of a giant steak. They hit .323 and slugged .645 against the pitch in 2024.

Seth Lugo, on the other hand, has borne a heavier workload than ever, and is laboring under it like a draft horse—that is to say, making it look easy. Looking at him and his numbers from this season, it’s hard to believe Lugo’s only been a true starter for two years (three if you count 2017). Utilizing a nine-pitch mix seems nearly unimaginable, but it means he doesn’t rely on any one pitch, and hitters can’t get used to anything. Lugo has a strikeout percentage of over 15% on all his pitches except for the sweeper, and some pitches sit closer to 30%, like his famed curveball, which accounts for 50 strikeouts all on its own.

The Yankees, it should be noted, struggled as a team against the curve this year, posting a collective .293 wOBA against. Juan Soto in particular hit just .167 against them. Aside from that, the Yankees offense has been sluggish too. They’ve split the series so far, but Kansas City has outscored them, and now they’ll be away from home. The Yanks are beatable and especially so against a finesse pitcher with such a wide arsenal of pitches. Wrong side favored.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------