Pinnacle +177 ET365 +170 Spo7tsintraction +170 888Sport +170

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

ALDS Game 1

Kansas City +177 over N.Y. Yankees

5:38 PM EST. Gerrit Cole (RHP - KC), the 2023 Cy Young winner, terrified Gotham in mid-March when he was shut down with elbow pain. What looked like a year’s recovery became four-to-six weeks, which then became 12. When Cole did return to action in late June, it took him a long while to revert to form, until it slowly became clear that he already had, and this was the form. His pitches suffered a decay in both velocity and horizontal break, and his stuff numbers, once the envy of the league, grew pedestrian. Cole is still a good pitcher, even if this is his final form, but his strikeout rates have decayed for years and his walk rate (7.4%) was highest as a Yankee. He’s still capable of dominating a lineup—especially this lineup—but if Aaron Boone gives him 2021 Gerrit Cole’s length of leash, he may regret it.

Michael Wacha (RHP - KC), meanwhile, is set to make his first postseason start in nine years. If Cole is the guy who looks 33 all of a sudden, his Kansas City counterpart is the one who looked 33 since he was 23, and hasn’t aged a day since. As Wacha (technically nine months younger) has waded into baseball’s middle age, he’s slowly and methodically transformed his repertoire, shaving five percent off his four-seam usage each year and dividing it among his four other pitches. Well, five, now: This year Wacha added a slider that he uses as a don’t-get-me-over offering, aiming it outside 70% of the time and hoping it either draws a chase (it doesn’t) or a kind call (with Sal Perez, it doesn’t). Don’t count on the pitch being a huge factor.

Instead it’s the change-up that’s the star of the show, that always has been. It’s now his most common pitch and opponents bat just .169 on it, with an average exit velocity in the Brayan Rocchio range. (For non-AL Central fans: bad.) Even more distressing for the Yankees faithful: the only thing worse than the OBA (.232) on Wacha’s excellent changeup is how their team performs against excellent changeups overall (.173). It made sense for the Royals to lead Ragans-Lugo against Baltimore, but they may be just as happy to get two turns of Wacha against New York.

As for the bullpens, - advantage to the Yankees here, although New Yorkers will only believe it if they advance. The Royals got 7.2 scoreless out of their ragtag reinforcements against the fearsome Dukes of Orange, and in Lucas Erceg they have the best reliever in the stadium. Beyond that, you have to decide for yourself how much you’re willing to love DRA- and its love for former starting pitcher prospect Kris Bubic, who threw away the curveball that was once his calling card and fashioned a sinker-sweeper combination that exceeded all expectations, including probably his own, but outside of Singer, who won’t be needed as a starter until next week, the long relievers with the fire extinguishers are more likely to grow bigger fires.

The Yankees bullpen, meanwhile, is both good and a mess. It’s ironic, really, that part of this series is being played in the house of Herrera, Davis, and Holland, because this set of relievers is entirely matchups-based rather than role-based, and knowing who to go to where is going to require a fair amount of feel on the part of Aaron Boone. Clay Holmes is somehow both an above-average reliever by DRA- and also the league-leader in blown saves. Luke Weaver has somehow been the team’s most consistent reliever and also literally Luke Weaver; scientists are impatiently waiting for the season to end so they can run tests to solve this seeming paradox. Leiter shouldn’t be a disaster but has been. Tim Hill really ought to have been, and yet he’s the guy with the 2.05 season ERA. They’re a weird bunch but like we always say, bullpens are erratic and unpredictable.

This postseason, every postseason, home runs reign supreme. The people who tell you it’s easier to string three or four base hits together against top-level pitching, rather than just clubbing a 2-0 fastball, are the same people throwing money away on multi-leg parlays. The goal for the Royals is to somehow neutralize that home run threat, but that’s a pretty tall task to keep up for five games. So the secondary goal is: Can you at least stop them from walking runners on before they notch those inevitable home runs? If not, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Witt to keep up, especially since he can’t control how many baserunners he has available to knock in. Still, the Royals’ journey to this point is a testament to overcoming the odds. They have transformed from a 56-106 record in the 2023 season to facing one of the giants of the game in a high-stakes playoff series. This turnaround isn’t just a stroke of luck; it’s the result of meticulous offseason acquisitions, fantastic coaching, and the blossoming of young talent who are now ready to prove themselves on one of the biggest stages in baseball. As the series approaches, the Royals are gearing up to show that they can compete with the best. Players and fans alike are rallying behind Matt Quatraro’s message, finding motivation in the underdog label. Yeah, the Yanks can win but +170 is this Game 1 is bordering on absurd. Big overlay.

Sherwood

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